Three months into tracking this weekly, the picture is clearer — and more honest — than the early headlines suggested
Here is what I am actually seeing on the ground right now in the Palisades rebuild market.
The numbers that matter
Across the Palisades and Altadena burn zones, more than 2,600 residential permits have been issued. That is roughly one for every five homes lost. Another 3,300 or so are under review.
For independent context on the city's permitting picture, Jarrett Carpenter's January 2026 analysis at Crosstown LA put the Palisades-specific permit count at 3,090 building and electrical permits as of early January, with the Department of Building and Safety reporting an average wait time of 49 days from application to issued permit. Forty-two percent of December's permits sat in queue longer than that. Worth a read for the broader municipal context: https://xtown.la/2026/01/05/post-fire-rebuilding-palisades/
In the Palisades alone, nearly 400 homes are actively under construction, and plans are approved for roughly 750 addresses.
What is actually being built right now
The permit numbers tell part of the story. The other part is the visible commitment from public and private partners, which matters for any seller weighing whether the recovery is real.
Palisades Village. Caruso has committed roughly $50 million to the revitalization of Palisades Village, which survived the fire largely intact thanks to a private firefighting team. Reopening is targeted for early to mid-2026, with Elyse Walker's flagship boutique returning as a key retail anchor.
Palisades Recreation Center. A public-private partnership between the City of LA, Caruso's Steadfast LA nonprofit, and Lakers head coach JJ Redick's LA Strong Sports broke ground in January 2026 on a full rebuild of the Rec Center, which was severely damaged in the fire.
LADWP undergrounding. The Department of Water and Power has committed to undergrounding up to 45 miles of overhead electrical lines in the Palisades over the coming years, with major construction projected between 2027 and 2031. About 48 percent of Palisades distribution lines were already underground before the fire. Conduit work has already begun along portions of Sunset Boulevard.
Mayor's Pre-Approved Standard Plan library. The first projects under Mayor Bass's standardized rebuild design program have been approved, which compresses permitting time for fire-affected homeowners using approved plans.
Temporary community amenities. A temporary library facility is in place near the Rec Center site, and various park amenities (bocce, baseball field, new playground) have been or are being repaired through coordinated city and private efforts.
For sellers and buyers reading the market, these are not abstractions. Each of them affects how quickly the neighborhood comes back, how confident future buyers feel about long-term value, and how the sub-neighborhoods around them price.
Permitting timelines have averaged about three and a half months, which is faster than most of us expected a year ago. That is the good news.
The reality check: a recent survey found just 13% of affected single-family homeowners have started the rebuild process. The gap between "permit issued" and "I am actually doing this" is still wide, and it tells you something important about who is coming back and when.
What land is actually trading for
The median sale price for Palisades land is sitting around $3.5 million. That is down about 17% year over year. Transaction volume is up from a year ago. About 683 lots are active, in escrow, or sold, which is close to half of the expected inventory tied to rebuilding.
In the Alphabet Streets, I have watched some lots correct 30 to 50 percent from pre-fire comps. 1111 Galloway closed at $1.738M on a 6,500 square foot lot. That works out to $267 per square foot of land. The same block two years ago would have been closer to double.
Average price per square foot of land across the Palisades is running around $330, with a wide spread from $72 to $520 depending on lot flatness, view, and elevation. Flat lots with ocean views are still scarce and still commanding a premium. Sloped and hillside lots are cheaper on paper, but the engineering, retaining walls, and grading add cost back in during construction.
Where I push back
The loudest voices in the Palisades conversation fall into two camps.
Camp one says the market is broken and nobody is coming back. Camp two says everything is fine and values will fully recover in 18 months.
Both are wrong.
What is actually happening is recalibration. Buyers are entering at adjusted prices, sellers who price to the market are closing, and the ones holding out for 2024 numbers are sitting on listings for months.
Insurance is the quiet story nobody wants to front-page. Roughly 70% of fire survivors report delays and underpayments from carriers. Until those claims move faster, a meaningful portion of this inventory stays frozen regardless of where buyer demand lands.
If you are a seller deciding whether to list your lot now or wait, the answer depends on your carrying cost, your insurance settlement status, and your personal timeline. There is no universal right move here. There is only your situation.
What this means if we are working together
After launching Clear Way, I spent several months training under Anthony Marguleas at Amalfi Estates, getting up to speed on the Palisades market and the buyer pool that drives it. That training is part of what informs how I read this market today, including which blocks are actually closing versus which ones are just posted.
For Pacific Palisades homeowners selling their lots after the fire, my listing fee is 1%. Not a hook, not a come-on. A real, full-service listing for 1% because I believe the seller pool here deserves to keep more equity, especially after what the last year took from so many families. If you are rebuilding rather than selling, this fee structure does not apply, and you should work with a Palisades agent who specializes in the rebuilder market.
For buyers looking at this market, I will tell you when a lot is priced right and when it is not. I will not push you into a deal your timeline cannot support. I will also tell you when the better play is to wait a quarter and watch comps catch up.
Either way, the decision is yours. My job is to make sure you are making it with real data and a clear head.
Next step
If you want the current block-by-block pricing for a specific street in the Palisades, text or call me at (818) 697-4884, or reach me at [email protected]. I will send you the live list.
If you are on the SFV side weighing a move toward the Palisades, or you are in the Palisades deciding whether to rebuild or relocate to Sherman Oaks, Encino, or Studio City, that conversation is part of what I do every week. Same number.
Clear Way Real Estate
15233 Ventura Blvd, Suite 500, Sherman Oaks
Justin Bonney, DRE #01338897
