I've written four quarterly market reports for Sherman Oaks now. This one feels different. The data says the market is stable. My phone says something else. Here's what Q2 2026 actually looks like when you're the one writing offers and pricing listings every week.
The Headline vs. The Reality
You've probably seen the national real estate headlines. "Market Cooling." "Buyer Advantage." "Inventory Surge." All true, somewhere. But Sherman Oaks doesn't exist in a headline. It exists on Ventura Boulevard and south of it. And those two Sherman Oaks are having very different springs.
North of Ventura? Slightly softer. Inventory is moving more slowly. Sellers are negotiating. South of Ventura, from the boulevard down to Moorpark and beyond? Still tight. Still competitive in the right price range. The data that works for the whole San Fernando Valley doesn't tell you what you need to know if you're the one deciding whether to list or buy on Mary Ellen Drive.
That's why you're here. Not for national takes. For what's actually happening on the ground.
Median Home Price: $1.35M, and It's Holding
Q2 2026 is giving us a median home price of approximately $1.35 million in Sherman Oaks. That's essentially flat quarter-over-quarter from Q1. Year-over-year, we're up about 2.1 percent compared to Q2 2025.
Here's where it gets interesting.
South of Ventura Boulevard, the median is sitting around $1.42 million. North of Ventura, it's closer to $1.24 million. That gap matters. It tells you where demand is strongest. And it tells you that if you're north of the boulevard and your home is priced in the $1.1M to $1.3M range, you're in the sweet spot. Anything overpriced up there is starting to hurt.
This isn't a crash. It's not a boom. It's a market that's remembering how to function like a real market, not a lottery.
Days on Market: The Speed Test
Here's a number that actually tells you something: 18 to 22 days for a well-priced home in Q2 2026.
If your house is priced correctly, it's moving. Not in two days like 2021. But honestly and quickly, with multiple showings and reasonable offers coming in. That's healthy.
But there's a cliff. Once you hit 35 to 40 days on market, you're in trouble. Stale listings are concentrated in a few categories:
- Homes priced 8 to 15 percent above comparable sales
- Properties that need significant work and are still listed at "move-in ready" prices
- Condos on higher floors in older buildings without top-tier amenities
If you're selling, those first seven days matter more than ever. Pricing right from the jump isn't optional anymore. It's the difference between 20 days and 80 days.
Inventory: Enough to Breathe
We're hovering around 2.1 months of supply in Sherman Oaks. For perspective, 6+ months is a buyer's market. Below 2 months is a seller's market. We're just barely over the line into balanced territory.
The shift is real, but it's not dramatic. We're not getting flooded with inventory. Sellers still have leverage if they're smart about pricing. But that leverage is finite. The days of listing at 15 percent above value and expecting a bidding war are over.
This is actually good news if you're buying. You have options. You're not priced out by competition. But you still need to move decisively on the right property.
What Buyers Are Experiencing in Q2
Multiple offers? Less common than six months ago. We're seeing multiple offers on maybe 35 to 40 percent of sales now, compared to 70 to 80 percent a year ago.
Contingency waivers? Sellers still want them on appraisal gaps and inspections in competitive deals, but they're not universal anymore. You have room to negotiate.
Appraisal gaps are real. In Q2, we're seeing about 8 to 12 percent of offers that appraise below asking price. If the appraisal comes in low, the conversation has changed. You're not automatically eating the difference. That's leverage you didn't have last year.
The buyer's experience right now: You have time to think. You can make an offer with contingencies if the house needs inspection. You're not bidding against twelve other offers at 2 a.m. on a Sunday.
But here's the catch. If you're looking in the $1.1M to $1.6M range south of Ventura, and the house is actually well-priced and in decent shape, you still need to move fast. The right properties don't sit.
What Sellers Need to Know
I'm going to be direct because you're paying for honesty.
Overpricing has a real penalty now. Every 5 percent above fair market value costs you roughly 15 days on market. At 10 percent over, you're looking at 35 to 45 days and a lower final sale price than if you'd started lower.
The old strategy of "list high and negotiate down" is expensive in 2026. Fewer buyers are willing to chase overpriced homes. They see the overpriced comps on Zillow just like you do.
Days on market damage your sale price. Longer listings suggest problems to buyers, even if the house is fine. That "Wow, why has this been on the market for 60 days?" feeling is hard to shake, even with a price cut.
The first week still dominates. If your home doesn't get multiple showings in the first seven days, something is wrong. Either the price is too high, the marketing is weak, or the home genuinely needs more work than you thought. Fix it before you lose momentum.
South of Ventura, if you're listing in the $1.3M to $1.5M range and your home is in decent shape, you should expect 25 to 35 days and solid buyer feedback. If you're not getting that by day 14, reset the price.
Interest Rates and Buyer Purchasing Power
Rates are holding steady in Q2 2026 at 6.25 to 6.5 percent for a 30-year fixed mortgage, depending on credit and down payment. That's roughly where they've been for the last six months.
What does that mean for a buyer with $400K down, looking at the $1M to $2M range?
On a $1.4 million purchase price with 20 percent down, the monthly payment is roughly $7,600 at 6.4 percent. That requires about $280K in annual income to be comfortable. A lot of Sherman Oaks buyers can do that. But not all of them. That's the buying power ceiling.
A single rate increase to 7 percent drops purchasing power by about $100K across the market. A drop to 5.5 percent would unlock maybe another $150K in volume. We're not seeing dramatic rate moves in Q2, so don't expect dramatic shifts in demand.
What's happening instead: Buyers in the $1.2M to $1.6M range are being more careful. Less impulse buying. More homework on the neighborhood, the school district, the actual condition of the home. That's not a bad thing. That's just a more rational market.
Condos and Townhomes: A Different Animal
Sherman Oaks condos and townhomes in the Ventura Boulevard corridor are experiencing their own market.
Median price for a condo south of Ventura and east of Hazeltine is around $680K. Days on market are slightly longer at 24 to 28 days for well-priced units. Inventory for condos specifically is at about 2.3 months of supply.
The issue: Condo buyers are more rate-sensitive. A 6.5 percent rate kills affordability faster for a $700K condo than a $1.4M single-family home. Buyers financing 85 percent are watching those rates closely.
Townhomes (attached homes with yards, typically $950K to $1.25M) are performing better. They're closer to single-family demand. 19 to 24 days on market for priced-right inventory.
If you're buying a condo as an investment or primary residence, Q2 gives you room to negotiate. Sellers aren't getting multiple offers on condos the way they might on a detached home. Use that leverage.
The Q3 Outlook: What I'm Actually Seeing
Here's what the pending data and the phones in my office are telling me about Q3 2026.
Expect steady inventory levels, maybe a slight increase as more people feel comfortable listing. The sellers who held back in late 2025 and early 2026 are starting to think seriously about summer listings. That's normal. That will help buyers.
Buyer activity is picking up, but it's not the frenzied Q3 and Q4 buying pattern we've seen in the past. Families are looking to move before school starts. That's real. But they're looking, not panicking.
Interest rates are holding. Unless there's a major shift in the national economy or inflation, I don't expect significant rate moves in the next 90 days. That means affordability stays roughly where it is.
The downside risk: If rates surprise to the upside (toward 7 percent plus), you'll see a noticeable dip in buyer activity in mid-to-late Q3. The people on the edge of the market will step back.
The upside: If rates drift down toward 6 percent, Sherman Oaks will see a pickup in demand that could tighten inventory again. Overpriced homes will feel more pressure, but fairly priced homes south of Ventura will perform well.
My honest read: Q3 2026 is a buyer's best window of the year. Not historically, but compared to where we've been the last 24 months, yes. If you're thinking about buying, late spring and summer is the time to do your homework and move when you find the right property.
For sellers: Price right and list early in Q3. Don't wait until July hoping to catch a late summer rush. The rush isn't coming the way it used to.
Get Your Real Numbers, Not a Zestimate
You're holding a data report written by someone who prices homes for a living, not an algorithm trained on historic sales and a house color photograph. Real estate isn't a formula. It's addresses and neighborhoods and the actual condition of a roof and what the buyer sitting across the table from me is willing to pay.
If you're thinking about selling, you need a real competitive market analysis from someone who walked through comparable homes and knows what buyers are actually seeing. If you're buying, you need a real analysis of what a home is worth in today's market, not what an app thinks it's worth based on 2019 data.
I work with buyers and sellers across Sherman Oaks and the San Fernando Valley every week. I see the real market. I know what's priced right and what's priced for fantasy. Let's talk about your situation in those terms.
Website: homesbyclearway.com
Justin Bonney | Clear Way Real Estate | DRE #01338897
Helping buyers and sellers across the San Fernando Valley make clear, confident real estate decisions.
